Naratyvo konstravimas: JAV „ruošia“ biologinį ginklą (EN)

LUKAS ANDRIUKAITIS, ASSOCIATE ANALYST AT VILNIUS INSTITUTE FOR POLICY ANALYSIS AND A DIGITAL FORENSIC RESEARCH ASSOCIATE AT ATLANTIC COUNCIL’S DIGITAL FORENSIC RESEARCH LAB
Recently surfaced allegations that the United States is running a biological weapons laboratory in Tbilisi, Georgia, helped to reveal a broader Kremlin narrative.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense recently accused the United States of running a secret biological weapons lab in Georgia, in violation of international conventions. The spread of this fake story demonstrated the scope and durability the Kremlin’s information operations against Russia’s smaller neighbors, and against the U.S. presence in Europe. Similar reappearing stories are always based on a few false arguments, usually blaming US for creating biological weapons close to Russian borders. The plot usually takes place in neighboring smaller countries, including the Baltics States, Ukraine and Georgia and other post-Soviet countries. These stale stories are adapted depending on the region to make them more convincing to the readers.
Using various social media listening tools we were able to investigate the main stories supporting this wide narrative that were prevalent in the last 12 months. Interesting patterns emerged, suggesting that these stories were most likely tailored for the Russian domestic use. This case study shows how Kremlin regurgitates the same old story, adds a few tweaks and releases the story to a new audience with a brand new shelf life. 

SOCIAL LISTENING TOOLS, METHODOLOGY AND RELEVANCE 

In this research two social media listening tools were used: BuzzSumo and Sysomos. Buzzsumo platform helps to find and analyze the best performing content related to a specific niche, including social media. Meanwhile, Sysomos social media listening software is able to monitor 186 languages in 189 countries, with a particular focus on Facebook and Twitter. Combination of these two monitoring tools allows us to have a deep look into the information spread both in media outlets and social media platforms.
In this research we investigated one year worth of data from October 27, 2017 to October 27, 2018. As the first step, Buzzsumo platform was used to scan the information space in both English and Russian languages. The initial findings were then analyzed in depth, focusing on each region. Buzzsumo platform was used to find the initial trends, while Sysomos was used for cross-checking the findings and analyze the geography spread.

BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS’ STORIES 

The initial digital information scan in English and Russian over the period from October 27, 2017 to October 27, 2018, revealed some interesting patterns. The comparison of the two languages revealed that the timelines of these stories engagement did not have a strong overlap. In Russian, most articles regarding biological weapons were posted in October, 2018, while in English in December, 2017. This observation was supported by the list of the most engaged stories and domains, which showed no significant overlap.

(Source: @DFRLab via Buzzsumo).
The main takeaway from this comparison was that the most engaged stories and domains in English language were mostly discussed by reliable independent sources, despite a few exceptions (RT and YouTube, which has to be analyzed separately). These stories in English mostly discussed US made biological weapons without focusing on a particular region, or in regards to North Korea. Meanwhile, the most engaged with Russian articles were focusing on the Baltic States, Georgia with a few stories discussing US chemical weapons without a concrete geographical context. 

BALTICS 

On August 9, the Latvian Russian-language edition of Sputnik News published an article accusing the U.S. military of developing and testing biological weapons in the Baltic States. The discussed weapon was identified as African Swine Fever (ASF) and it was argued that the ASF could not have adapted to northern climate naturally and must have been created in a laboratory. The author argued that the Pentagon’s infectious disease labs, which operate around the world, must have developed this winter-resistant strain of ASF.
The Buzzsumo search revealed that the story only had 24 online content pieces, and solely concentrated on August, 2018. Despite the relatively low number of articles, this story managed to garner a significant number of engagements.

(Source: @DFRLab via Buzzsumo).
Sysomos analysis also confirmed the Buzzsumo findings and showed that the story was only prominent in August, 2018. Sysomos search yielded 385 unique results with the keywords „биологическое оружие“ (biological weapon) and „в Прибалтике“ (in the Baltic States) during the past year. The geographical spread of the of the content with these keywords suggested that the story was mostly targeted at the Russian domestic population. The overall sentiment of these posts was marked as 67% negative.

(Source: @DFRLab via Sysomos). 

GEORGIA 

While analyzing October, which had the most published articles throughout the year, a focus on Georgia was observed. Not all the articles about biological weapons in October aimed at Georgia. A few of the articles were about biological weapons in the Baltics, Ukraine, and US plans to use biological weapons against Russia.
The main story targeting Georgia had very similar motives as the one targeting the Baltic States. Russia’s Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused the United States of running a secret biological weapons lab in Georgia, in violation of international conventions. At briefing on October 4, blamed US for developing weapons at the Richard Lugar Center for Public Health Research in Tbilisi, posing a direct security threat to Russia.
This story received limited coverage in the English-language Western media and was presented mostly as unfounded. Buzzsumo analysis suggested that there was no unusual, highly engaged activity with pro-Kremlin media regarding the story, except one from the pro-Kremlin media outlet Fort Russ. This article, published on October 5, 2018, argued that there was proof of US biological weapons in Tbilisi. For Georgian language engagement, no suspicious engaged with media content was found as well.
In order to check geography of the engagements and cross-check the dispersement in the timeline, Sysomos platform was used. A Sysomos search yielded 502 unique results with the keywords „биологическое оружие“ (biological weapon) and „в Грузии“ (in Georgia) during the past year. Most of these results concentrated in October and the geographical spread of the of the content with these keywords suggested that the story was mostly targeted at the Russian domestic population. The overall sentiment of these posts was marked as 68% negative.

Geographical spread, timeline analysis and the of the of the content with keywords “биологическое оружие” and “в Грузии” spread. (Source: Sysomos via @DFRLab). 

OTHER COUNTRIES 

The other countries that fell victim to this Kremlin narrative were Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan. These countries were mentioned in the story blaming US for the biological weapons development in Georgia. According to the story, Lugar Center was only a small element of the extensive US military-biological program. It was argued that actively deployed in the states adjacent to Russia, where laboratories under the control of the Pentagon also operate. Reconstruction of laboratory buildings continues in Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan. This mention serves as a signal, that the upcoming biological weapons allegation will likely be targeted at these countries.
Ukraine was already targeted by similar stories, in January 2016, August 2017, July 2017, and on other occasions. These stories did not stand out much during the past 12 months that this research was focusing on.

FINDINGS 

Only the past 12 months were analyzed in this case study, due to operationalization purposes and software limitations. The biological weapons stories tories that emerged throughout past 12 months appear to be only the tip of an iceberg. Example of Pentagon being accused of developing biological weapons in post-Soviet states by Kremlin-funded media can be traced back to the 1980s. The story about Georgia from October 5, 2018 is also not entirely new. Similar story appeared in Georgian in 2015, also involving US, secret biological virus and farm animals.
These stories did not appear to be prominent in English language, as some of the other stories fake stories in the past. This finding suggested, together with the Sysomos analysis suggested that this narrative is primarily tailored for the domestic Russian population. This does not come as a big surprise, since the narrative feeds perfectly into the Russia’s as a “surrounded fortress” image that is often used by Kremlin to rally the population together and distract them from bigger problems that Russia is facing. 

CONCLUSION 

The US biological weapons story in Georgia appeared to be a part of a wider Kremlin narrative. The results from Buzzsumo and Sysomos analysis suggested that pro-Kremlin media articles in English were not highly prominent, concentrating mostly on the Russian language.
Furthermore, other similar biological weapon stories were found this year, which were as prominent than the one concerning Georgia. This narrative serves as a good example of the complex Kremlin propaganda machine. The recent story about Georgia not only helped to analyze a prominent Kremlin narrative, but also showed how some narratives are specifically tailored to fit Russian domestic audience.